Three Card Monte: A Lesson in Spotting Rigged Games in Life

Monte, which uses three cards, is a confident game where dealers put three cards on their abilities and let the player apply a wrong card. As a general rule, two dark cards and one reddish queen. This is a task to prevent the player from losing sight of the "money card" (queen) while the dealer combines a fac e-t o-face card. The player prepares to bet on which card is regarded as queen while the dealer is moving the card on the table.

"Three Card Monte" looks like a normal luck game, but it is actually adjusted to lose players. The dealer tossed the players with the support of his hand in his hand, intelligent tricks, and his friends (a powerful person called "Silde").

"While walking on Times Square, there was a small crowd around the table. Dealers were on the cards and people were betting. I saw a little and made a decision. I am small. I won the bet, and I tried to win a big bet. I lost more than $ 500.

How the game is rigged.

1. Hand agility: The dealer uses the dexterity of the hand. These are "hype advertisements", when dealers prepare the shape, they actually throw away the queen, but actually throws another card. This operation allows the player to always see the wrong card.
2. Shirasu: Shirasu is an accomplice who pretends to be a normal player and involves fraud. They have all the potential to simulate prize money to give real players incorrectly and make more money.
3. Psychological operation: Dealers use these strategies as unnecessary confidence to use human psychology. The dealer makes the player win in the first round at a certain win rate. Once the player is convinced of himself and becomes a huge amount of money, the dealer uses a test hand to lose the player.
4. Misunderstanding and lie: Dealers still have the chance to lie, for example, to make the corners of the currency card round and easier to understand. However, there is a chance to round the corner of the card and change it to another card so that the player cannot find it.

Why do people play anyway?

Despite fraud, people trust the thre e-card Monte act for various reasons:

1. In fact, I think there are many opportunities to win. This is a mistake. This game is not a game, but a scam.
2. Excessive confidence: Almost all players believe that they can deceive dealers and catch hands.
3. Podor: Gambling enthusiasm and risks can be beautiful, especially in street games where air is enthusiastic.
4. Pressure of the masses: The presence of ward residents and crowds may create a social environment in which people experience pressure to participate in this gambling.

What can we learn?

In commercial and in life, we must take into account, for example, weaknesses and positions as an expert. The risk is large, but the return is too large. There is no obligation to bet when the risk is large and the return is small.

However, in this case, the return is zero. If you can't win, don't play. The game has been changed and there is no chance. There is no effect.

So don't actually play in adjusted games.

Let's conclude that we will stop.

Can you win 3-card monte?

How a simple card game can separate skill from probability

If you approach the lively corner of the big city, you will notice one street magician with three cards on the table. Interested, learn how mysteriousness appears from these cards. He turns one card and shows an ace peak. He asks you $ 5, and if you can actually keep the peak behind this ace (A ♠), he will return $ 10 for you.

In other words, you lose $ 5 or to win $ 5. In this way, in order to win, you must choose a card that suits you with a probability of more than 50 %. You are convinced of his abilities to chase his hand, and we believe this will definitely increase the probability of choosing the right card. Finally, you agree with the situation, he can turn the card, shuffle three cards one by one, freeze, and choose which card becomes a queen.

On a Monte page using three cards from Wikipedia, the magician hires accomplices and "Sillers" to make the game small, usually called "shortcon".

This simulation is actually designed to show that another rag is considered an accident, including winning this conscientious IRGE.

Finally, this is the question: How about your ability to win when the number of Masen prepared by the magician is slightly increased?

Game Setup

Normally, three cards are lined up for food, one of which is a "money card", and in the case of A ♠, if observed, prize money is evoked.

If you choose one of the other two cards, you will lose your paid.

If there are two losers-2 ♠, 3 ♠, "money card" is A ♠ as already mentioned.

So, the scheme of this game seems to be separated:

Once, look at the original card, turn it over and hide ostensibly. The magician starts shuffling all two out of three cards or replacing it with blanks.

Theory

The uncertainty of the game, at least part of the uncertainty, seems to be due to the brain not recognizing the shuffle. In other words, the professionalism in this game can be represented by the precision αα of whether the shuffle of the two cards can be successfully tracked. In other words

It is highly likely that you understand the clear status of the winning card after the shuffle.

Suppose you know that the opening card has the image of (2 ♠, a ♠, 3 ♠). If you write in the form of a tuple, the wrong card, the middle card, and the right card are equal to the winning A ♠ (0, 1, 0), and the middle 1 has a 100%probability. It means that it is there. Here, let's assume that we really thought that there was a shuffle with the accuracy of α α between the middle card and the right card. The new probability is as follows: (0, ( 1-α) ⋅ 1 + α ⋅ 0, α ⋅ 1 + ( 1-α) ⋅ 0) (0, ( 1-α) ⋅ 1 + α ⋅ 1 + ( 1-α) ⋅ 0).

In a general case, assume that the initial probability was as follows: (p_0, p_1, p_2) (p_0, p_1, p_2) (p 0, p 1, p 2)

If you think that the shuffle was performed between the middle and the right card, the new probability is as follows: (p 0, ( 1-α) ⋅ p 1 + α ⋅ ⋅ p 2, ( 1-α) ⋅ p 2 + α ⋅ ⋅ p 1) (p_0, (1-α) ⋅ p_1 + α ⋅ p_2, (1-α) ⋅ p_2 + α ⋅ p_1) (p 0, (1-α) ⋅ p 1 + α ⋅ p 2, ( 1-α) ⋅ p 2 + α ⋅ p 1)

Let’s play

Let's track shuffle with intellectual accuracy. Assuming your accuracy is 0, 6. Remember to turn the card and shuffle.

You shuffled 0 times. Flip shuffle clear

Remember that you will lose money as shown on the red dotted line if all odds are less than 50 %!

Read the chart Display another shuffle: #0 Read the chart

In other words, the number of shuffles is fixed, and when the number of times is over, you can see that all cards are less than 0 or 5. At this point, you lose your dominance and the magician is more likely to use you.

Let’s play with a higher accuracy

In fact, let's assume that you have a really good professionalism and have a sharper eye than the majority of others. Your accuracy will be within 0, 8. Does it have an important meaning?

You shuffled 0 times. Flip shuffle clear

Remember that you will lose money as shown on the red dotted line if all odds are less than 50 %!

Read the chart Display another shuffle: #0 Read the chart

Regardless of your accuracy, it takes a few more tests for the magician to thwart your advantage. You can continue playing by changing the accuracy below and restarting and trying a new simulation.

Your turn to experiment !

Accuracy: Recovery You shuffled 0 times. Flip shuffle clear

Remember that you will lose money as shown on the red dotted line if all odds are less than 50 %!

Read the chart Display another shuffle: #0 Read the chart Have fun!

Acknowledgements

• Idyll is a tool for creating interactive stories like this one.
• The layout of this article is inspired by and adapted from Fred Hokhman's article on mappin g-cards, "Mathematics of Tasin g-cards". Part of the core for visualizing the map was repurposed from code written by Fred Hokhman.
• Our code can be found here.
• The cover image is available under Creative Commons. The author is shown as: "Shell Game" by Julia Boden is licensed under CC by-NC-ND 4. 0. & amp; lt; Pan& amp; gt; Regardless of your accuracy, you will find that some tests are necessary, as the magician will thwart your advantage. You can continue playing by changing the accuracy below and restarting and trying a new simulation.